All Florida Weekend

Auburn visits Gainesville for what the lizard-creatures are promising is heavy, heavy payback for spoiling their otherwise immaculate season last year. (Can you say Pontiac Game-Changing Performance??)

Alabama travels down to the home of the Jaguars to meet the much-reduced forces of Free Shoes University. (If only this were one of those years when FSU was actually, y'know, good...)

So: What will happen?

Auburn vs Florida:
There is no way on Earth Auburn can win this game. AU is in a downward spiral, with a season already "on the brink" only four games in. Losses to admittedly undefeated and ranked South Florida and a scrappy MSU team (when everything went wrong) have most observers thinking Auburn will be lucky to salvage a winning record this season, given the schedule ahead.

Plus there's the "revenge factor" for Florida. They unexpectedly fell to Auburn in Jordan-Hare last year, and everyone knows that can't happen back-to-back, especially in the Swamp this time.

Except, it already has happened once, and not too terribly long ago.

Anyone remember 1993-94?

Chris Dimino (790 the Zone in Atlanta) called it the "Monkeys fly out of my butt game." He had said if AU beat #1-ranked UF in '94, monkeys would fly out of his butt. Well....!

Nix to Sanders. 36-33. The Streak continued.

Now that's all well and good... it is possible, and all... buuuuuut.....

This year's offense is as young a group as I have ever seen at AU, particularly when Burns is in at QB instead of Cox. To think that such a team could go down to the Swamp, one of (if not THE) most intimdating stadiums in the SEC, and score enough to outpace Florida... Um, no.

But, still... it's somewhat comforting to know that the precedent does exist for such a thing. Sort of....

Alabama vs Florida State

If only this were a really good FSU team meeting the Tide, instead of the wreck they've become in recent years. I mean, they've lost to Clemson three of the last four years, for crying out loud.

I'd love to see the Seminoles-- not a favorite bunch of mine by any stretch of the imagination-- take some scalps from the bammers in J-town. But it won't happen. Alabama, shocked by the discovery that Saban cannot snap his fingers and cause his team to win automatically, will be somewhat relieved this week when they do, in fact, win the game.

A win for bama and a loss for AU. Not my kind of weekend, but I'm pretty sure that's what will happen. Ah, well.

John raised the following six questions. Here they are, along with my responses. --Van

1) Which position concerns you the most as we sit here 15 days before the opener??

It has to be the entire Offensive Line. If they don't do their jobs, the RBs won't accomplish much, Brandon will get crushed, and we'll be looking at Blake Field handing off to the 5th string RB by mid-season.

2) What position are you least concerned about?

Tight End. Because even the DL, as good as it should be, still has question marks. As great as Groves is (and can be), he takes plays and games off. Or has in the past...

3) Which unproven player are you putting the most faith / trust in to play well?

Whomever our field goal kicker turns out to be. Punter, too. We simply MUST trust that whichever young kid gets those jobs, they'll come through. If not, we should just pack it in now!

4) Which one game scares you the most (which is the highest chance of a loss)?

When you combine the "road game" factor, the "talent" factor, and the "#2 in the rankings" factor, there can't really be any other answer than LSU. But I think all four of our away games will be tough-- and each one will be uniquely tough. Here's why:
At Florida: Always incredibly difficult to win at Florida Field. And they want revenge.
At Arkansas: They seem to always have our number, in a way other teams of their caliber do not.
At Georgia: Some are tapping them as the "surprise" team in the East. While we usually do well in Athens, they should be loaded this year. And they took us down last year.

5) What one difference do you want to see out of this year’s offense?

Being able to complete long passes downfield. In the 2004 season, that was the one big difference over all of our previous years since 1981-- when we needed it, Jason could uncork a bomb to Devin or Ben. In 2005, with the same crowd of WRs, Cox could do it (or do it well enough). But last year, not so much. It really reduced our options.

I'd also like to see us getting back to our old, unpredictable playcalling and trick plays. Screen passes, reverses, halfback passes, TE blocking, then slipping out into a pattern, etc etc!!!

6) Who is the one Auburn player that will isn’t well known now but will make a big national name for himself this year?

Probably someone in the secondary, to be honest. We always seem to have a little bit of a vulnerability there (Carlos Rogers excepted). If someone can step up and make interceptions and stop WRs, they'll be well-known like CR was, by the end of the year.

Beyond that, maybe Mario Fannin or one of the linebackers....

John said it best: It is not football season without the "Coach O" song!

http://youtube.com/watch?v=63PnSDrGHRw

SHORTER KICKOFFS: HERE'S WHY.

John Pruett, venerable sports writer for the Huntsville Times, has an article up in which he says the new rule that moves the kickoffs back five yards is the biggest change to college sports in a generation or so.

I respectfully disagree.

I thought the change to the clock last year allowing the clock to keep running in many situations where before it would have been stopped, was the biggest change in games I've ever seen. Not only did it cause teams to burn time-outs more quickly (including in the ridiculous case of just before the first first down snap of a new series!!), but it dramatically shortened games and (more importantly) reduced by far the number of snaps of the ball the offenses got.

Exhibit A: Auburn vs South Carolina last year.

Auburn had the ball for every snap of the third quarter.

Let me repeat that, because it's a factoid as bizarre as was that game where neither the Buffalo Bills nor the team they were playing (the Rams?) punted a single time.

AUBURN HAD THE BALL FOR EVERY SNAP OF THE THIRD QUARTER.

That would have been all but impossible before the rules changes last year.

(And, heck, SC had the ball for nearly every snap of the FOURTH quarter, once they finally managed to get it back!)

Now THAT's a rules change with an impact!!

By contrast, this new longer kickoff rule is simply one attempted antidote for last year's ridiculous clock changes.

In sum: Last year they took away a bunch of offensive snaps from the game. So this year they set it up for teams to need fewer snaps to score.

The games will be shorter, but now it won't take as long to score.

I'm not happy about this.

If we're going this route, then, heck-- let's just play the entire game like it's OT, and have both teams start every possession on the opponent's 25 yard line!

Van’s 2007 SEC Preview

Okay, I lied. Today: LSU

LSU wants to prove that Les is More this year, and get rid of all that annoying talk about how “he’s doing it with Saban’s players.” Admittedly, Miles isn’t what you’d call an “inspiring” coach, seeming somewhat befuddled on the sidelines at times. Indeed, LSU fans seem to be, at best, tolerating Miles as their coach, despite his great win total thus far. If anything, they appear to believe he’s underachieved—though how going 11-2 every year is underachieving is a bit beyond me, and especially given LSU’s dismal record during the 1990s.

In any case, let’s dig into the schedule and see what the crazy purple and gold Cajuns will be doing in 2007:

At Miss. State
I like Sly Croom. I hate that he’s running a program that appears utterly helpless in the conference. That win over Alabama last year bought him some time (and stole what was left of time from Shula) but asking his lil’ ol’ team to compete with LSU’s level of talent is ridiculous.
LSU 38 MSU 13

Virginia Tech
On paper, a good matchup of athletic teams that play extremely tough defense. But LSU will be playing slightly better, it’s early enough in the season that raw talent will matter more than skill and teamwork accumulated over the course of a season, and it’s in Deaf Valley. Should be fun to watch.
LSU 20 VT 16

MTSU
Oh, please.
LSU 56 MTSU 6

South Carolina
Wellllll now. This could have been interesting, if it were in Columbia. But down in the big drunk-tank by the Gulf, I can’t see even Spurrier pulling off a miracle.
LSU 23 SC 13

At Tulane
Oh, please.
LSU 49 Tulane 9

Florida
Here we go. The pick of many as “round one” of the SEC Championship Game. The Gators have to travel to LSU. Nine of their defensive starters are new. Tebow is the full-time QB now. Lots of variables here. And of course Florida took down the Tigers in their “MNC” year of 2003 here, so it’s doable. However. However. However.
LSU 13 UF 10

At Kentucky
Trap game!! Trap game!! Sound the alerts and hide the kids, it’s the trap game!! Except, not so much.
LSU 34 UK 23

Auburn
This has turned into a true “home team always wins” series. Some LSU supporters claim that LSU has singled Auburn out as their biggest rival (though that that could change now that Saban’s at Alabama) (and meanwhile, Auburn considers LSU probably their, what, fifth biggest rival?). It has been a defensive slugfest par excellence the last few years. Auburn pulled out a last-second miracle in 2004; LSU watched AU’s kicker miss five FGs, any one of which would have beaten them, in 2005; AU won a game of steel from LSU in ’06, holding LSU to single digits. But AU has not won in Baton Rouge since the shellacking Tuberville handed them in ’99. I don’t see things going well this time. AU will score 17, which is pretty good on LSU in their own house. But LSU will score more.
LSU 23 AU 17

At Alabama
A huge game, at least from the perspective of the fans and the media. On the field, I expect a rather odd game to play out. Alabama’s usually-stout defense will be down a bit, while their recently-mediocre offense should be much improved. They’ll score a few points on LSU. But LSU will score more. It should be quite a circus.
LSU 31 Alabama 20

La Tech
Oh, please.
LSU 49 La Tech 6

At Ole Miss
Mumble mumble mumble mumble mumble OH CRAP IT’S LSU!
LSU 34 Ole Miss 13

Arkansas
If the Hawgs couldn’t get it done last year, I don’t know how they will this year.
LSU 24 Arkansas 20

Final record: 12-0. Except, I don’t think so. Something will happen. They won’t go undefeated. One of those teams will surprise me and everyone else and knock them off. But, game by game, I can’t find one that seems poised to do it.

So I think the 2007 season in the SEC West will be a weekly session of watching to see if anyone can take down LSU. Someone will do it. But who??

I think Florida, Auburn, and Alabama all have decent shots, though I see each of them as an underdog in that game. South Carolina and Kentucky are both set up to pull the monumental upset. And there’s Va Tech.

So pack your bags for the SECCG and the MNC Game, LSU. You got an extremely favorable schedule and you almost ran it. That’ll be good enough.

Maybe Les really is More! (Until you run him off in a couple of years. --ed.)

Van’s 2007 SEC Preview

If you’re wanting behind the scenes info and in-depth analysis of players across the board in the SEC, there are any number of places you can go for that stuff. I’m not gonna give you that.

Instead, I am going to do what I always do—rely on my three decades of closely following the various programs of the SEC—in order to provide my gut instinct; my own unique and admittedly Auburn-centric insights (such as they are) into how I think the upcoming season of football in the SEC will go.

First, the SEC EAST

Today: TENNESSEE

The Vols have sort of settled, in the years after their 1998 MNC, into being 1992 Auburn minus the scandal that pushes the coach out the door. (Maybe Fulmer can’t fit through the door? --ed.) They have talent, they have some accomplished coaches on the staff, and they have tons of money and fan support.

So why haven’t they won more?

(Does this mean all they need is Terry Bowden?? --ed.) (Let's not get crazy, here. --Van)

Why have they failed to really threaten for a title of any sort in a number of years?

Search me.

But my standard rule when predicting what will happen with football (at any level) is “You have to show me something this year, before I will give you the benefit of the doubt next year.” It’s a good rule.

For example, it caused me to pick against Buffalo in all four of their Super Bowls, and it causes me to pick Florida every single year against Georgia.

So—UT might truly have a breakout year in 2007. The pieces are in place. But will they? Will I predict that they will, based only upon potential and possibilities? Heck, no.

Here’s how I break down their 2007 schedule:

At Cal: I totally called UT putting a beating on Cal last year, though the severity of the beat-down did surprise me. The Bears limped back to Berkeley so sore and bruised they lacked even the energy to protest the war or put flowers in rifle barrels. Heck, they could barely even move their fingers to flash a “peace” sign. But this year may be a little bit different. The Vols go to the Left Coast and the Golden ones will be a little more comfortable in their own house. UT still wins, but not as badly as last time.
UT 23 Cal 16

Southern Miss: Ahh, the “almost” team of all time. Southern Miss. Minus the Favre years, they’ve never quite accomplished anything of note, aside from scaring a number of more established teams to death. USM’s approach to football is so conservative, they make Dick Cheney seem like Dennis Kucinich. To be fair, they do what they have to do, to give the team the best chance to win, given their general level of talent. But I’ve seen nothing out of USM’s dull, stodgy gameplans the past few years to indicate they can waltz into the big orange house and pull out a win.
UT 30 USM 17

At Florida: I’m going to keep this short and sweet: Florida seems to find a way to win this game, more often than not. It’s in the Swamp this year. (Do they still call it that?) And I think Tebow’s going to do just fine.
UF 20 UT 13

Arkansas State: As if.
UT 45 ASU 9

Georgia: The Dawgs come to Neyland but they are not intimidated there, of late. It seems like the team that usually needs this win finds a way to lose it. 2004 comes to mind, for example. UT needs this game to stay in the race after dropping the Gator-fest. Sadly for them, they won’t get it.
UGA 23 UT 20

At Mississippi State: Sly Croom has an upset a’brewin’ for 2007. I’m sure of it. Will this be it? MMMMmmmmmmmm no.
UT 31 MSU 10

At Alabama: I’m sure the media will play this up just as much as they will every other “Saban vs ____” game this season (Saban vs Fulmer; Saban vs Miles; Saban vs Tuberville; you get the idea). Alabama has a way of doing well in this game, when least expected—I’m thinking of Stallings and the 9-6 debacle a few years back, as well as Curry beating UT in ’89. But UT has Alabama’s number of late, more often than not.
UT 20 UA 16

South Carolina: Here’s your upset special. Spurrier knows UT and knows how to beat them. He came close last year and this time he’ll get it done. The Zaxby Boys come into Knoxville and take care of business.
USC 24 UT 21

UL-Lafayette: UT will be angry from their loss to the Chikins. The Ragin’ Cajuns will get scalped smoother than James Carville.
UT 52 UL-L 13

Arkansas: No one knows what to expect from Arkansas this year, aside from McFadden left, McFadden right, and Felix Jones on the change-up. The game’s in Knoxville. The Hogs have been the definition of a team in turmoil in the offseason. But by this point in the year, they should have things running more smoothly. Plus they’ll want revenge for last year’s thumping.
UT 20 Ark 18

Vanderbilt: Only once in an age of the world does Vandy win this game. They already accomplished that feat two years back, so the next time they manage it, we’ll all be driving flying cars and have summer homes on the Moon.
UT 31 Vandy 20

At Kentucky: Oooooh, watch out! The Cats are supposedly for real, this year! They have “upset special” written all over their team bus. The game’s in Lexington. The Vols will be down at this point about being eliminated from the SEC Championship Game. Everything favors UK. Even so—I just can’t pull the trigger on it.
UT 31 UK 27

Final record: 9-3

Howzabout a nice trip to the Outback Bowl for the big orange polyester squad this year?

Next up: Florida

Rank the SEC coaches (including staffs).

And if you had to pick only one current SEC coach to coach your hypothetical team, which would you choose?

My rankings of the top five:

1. Auburn / Tuberville
I think the combination of Al Borges and Will Muschamp takes a backseat to no one in the conference, and maybe in the US. Borges led an undefeated offense in his first season, something Spurrier has never done. Muschamp won a national championship. Tuberville is the perfect CEO. And Auburn now has a winning record against every team in the SEC (except Florida) over the past 20 years or so.

2. Georgia / Richt
You can't argue with success. But Richt is 2-3 against Auburn and 1-4 against Florida.

3. South Carolina / Spurrier
I still find that hard to type.
By himself, Spurrier ranks third on the list. Give him some players and a solid defense and watch out.

4. Arkansas / Nutt
I'm anxious to see what Houston Nutt will do with a more wide-open offensive philosophy this year. He always gets his teams to play hard and they're rarely, if ever, a given win for another team. With top-flight talent and a slightly more imaginative offense...??

5. LSU / Miles; Florida / Meyer
All I saw from these two coaching staffs last year was frustration. Despite only losing two games, LSU never quite seemed like the juggernaut they were under Saban. I am nowhere near convinced of Les Miles's credentials, yet. Show me something. (Just not the week you play Auburn, please.) Same for Urban Legend. I will believe he is the Man when I see Florida open a can on Auburn in Jordan-Hare. It could happen, sure. He's called a genius and they have the talent, plus a seasoned QB. We shall see.

Also of note:
Tennessee
Man, did they ever destroy my opinion of them last year. I don't think they ever knew what they were doing, except maybe in the second half against LSU. I keep reading about how Cutcliffe will make everything right again. Um. Same players, pretty much. Again, we'll see...

Responses to Van's SEC East Predictions Post:

I think the East will resemble the West of years past - 3 or 4 teams all knocking each other off - I think the winner be decided by a tiebreaker. I am not sold on Cutcliffe making UT great again - I think the talent is just down a notch or two there, and I think the Mannings made Cutcliffe look smarter than he is......

UF may be the best team, but they also have the toughest schedule (at Auburn, UT and FSU, home with LSU, UGA, South Carolina and Alabama.) And UF had real weaknesses at running back and the offensive line last year - are they significantly better in those areas? I don't think so.


So I see a lot of 9-2 of 8-3 teams tied for the SEC East lead....

_______________________________________________________________________


As for Notre Dame, they will be excellent on offense, but the defense was weak last year and I don't expect it to be better than mediocre this year. And the schedule? At Southern Cal is still the toughest game. Penn State and Michigan visit and either one could be ND on a good day. But still, they are 10-2 at least.