Pre-season Polls are Bunk.
Most college football pre-season polls should taken about as seriously as Vanderbilt's chances of going undefeated in the SEC.
Why? Why are pre-season polls so flawed?
1) Every year is completely different. One of the great things about college football is that every team is completely new each year. Yes, you know who is coming back to the team - but you are talking about an organization that lost (on average) its 20 most experienced people and added 20 new people to the mix. As they say in the stock market, past results are not an indicator of future success. Sure, the team may have lots of high-school all-americans on the depth chart, but maybe all the hard-working, selfless leaders graduated and the people taking their place are not quite as selfless or dedicated. The result?? A team that does not meet expectations.
2) Pre-season polls are based on how the 'experts' feel about the team at the moment, not on who they really expect to win the national title. Who was hot at the end of the year? Who was impressive in a bowl game? (which may have a had a lot more to do with matchups that future greatness.)
3) Some teams traditionally get a 'bump' in pre-season polls because of their big name. Michigan is Exhibit A. They haven't lost less than 4 games in several years and are always in the pre-season top 10.
4) Schedules change in strength from year to year. So a team has a great season in the SEC one year - the next year they might get all their tough games on the road.
So what really matters when considering teams in the pre-season?
1) Overall talent in the depth chart.
2) Schedule. How many road games to really hard places to win? (ie LSU, UF, FSU, Oklahoma, etc.)
3) Returning experience at quarterback. This is always under-rated. Nothing matters more when visiting a loud, hostile stadium than experience at quarterback. So teams that have lots of talent but an unproven quarterback can be assured of one or two losses in tough road environments. (I think UGA is textbook case for this case this year. Mucho talent, unproven QBs.) Talent is nice, but until you have 'been there and done that' you are a loss waiting to happen.
Most college football pre-season polls should taken about as seriously as Vanderbilt's chances of going undefeated in the SEC.
Why? Why are pre-season polls so flawed?
1) Every year is completely different. One of the great things about college football is that every team is completely new each year. Yes, you know who is coming back to the team - but you are talking about an organization that lost (on average) its 20 most experienced people and added 20 new people to the mix. As they say in the stock market, past results are not an indicator of future success. Sure, the team may have lots of high-school all-americans on the depth chart, but maybe all the hard-working, selfless leaders graduated and the people taking their place are not quite as selfless or dedicated. The result?? A team that does not meet expectations.
2) Pre-season polls are based on how the 'experts' feel about the team at the moment, not on who they really expect to win the national title. Who was hot at the end of the year? Who was impressive in a bowl game? (which may have a had a lot more to do with matchups that future greatness.)
3) Some teams traditionally get a 'bump' in pre-season polls because of their big name. Michigan is Exhibit A. They haven't lost less than 4 games in several years and are always in the pre-season top 10.
4) Schedules change in strength from year to year. So a team has a great season in the SEC one year - the next year they might get all their tough games on the road.
So what really matters when considering teams in the pre-season?
1) Overall talent in the depth chart.
2) Schedule. How many road games to really hard places to win? (ie LSU, UF, FSU, Oklahoma, etc.)
3) Returning experience at quarterback. This is always under-rated. Nothing matters more when visiting a loud, hostile stadium than experience at quarterback. So teams that have lots of talent but an unproven quarterback can be assured of one or two losses in tough road environments. (I think UGA is textbook case for this case this year. Mucho talent, unproven QBs.) Talent is nice, but until you have 'been there and done that' you are a loss waiting to happen.
posted by John Ringer at 10:15 AM
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